Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E5 0xe5e8…fda9 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$28 (+7%) realized +$60 · open −$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+25.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+38.4%	+25.2%	100%	75%	+10.3%
≤30d	4	+38.4%	+25.2%	100%	75%	+10.3%
≤90d	4	+38.4%	+25.2%	100%	75%	+10.3%
all	4	+38.4%	+25.2%	100%	75%	+10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.2%	75%	+10.3%
10%	+13.2%	75%	-0.2%
15%	+2.3%	25%	-9.9%
20%	-7.7%	25%	-18.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$32

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	24¢	17¢	$110	$78	−$32 (-29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$2	+2%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$101	+$31	+31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$9	+93%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 14	$66	+$18	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$100	1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$113	36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	76¢	$101	43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Japan	78¢	$66	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.99 · official $77.99 (match) · 9 history records