Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5e8…39d3 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$17 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$219
sports 24% +$211
crypto 18% −$67
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 39% -14.2%
≤30d 80 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 39% -14.2%
≤90d 80 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 39% -14.2%
all 80 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 39% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 39% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 26% -22.4%
15% -32.7% 14% -29.9%
20% -39.3% 9% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)80 / 88
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 34¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$93 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 39m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 41m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 57m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $204 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.49 · official $533.09 (match) · 195 history records