Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe5e4…2e01 crypto 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$455 (+14%) realized +$455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%136W / 116L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$408
7 days−$408
14 days+$20
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$182
world 27% +$872
other 15% −$275
sports 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -77.9% -80.0% 17% 8% -79.4%
≤30d 18 -31.2% -37.8% 39% 33% +5.5%
≤90d 252 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 36% +1.7%
all 252 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 36% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 36% +1.7%
10% -23.6% 23% -8.0%
15% -31.0% 19% -16.9%
20% -37.7% 13% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses136 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage90d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$1 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $270 +$273 +101%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$156 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $350 +$152 +43%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -89%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $134 +$314 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 15 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 15 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 14 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 14 $12 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $543 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $171 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $120 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $85 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 12d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 13d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 17d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 86¢ $402 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 56¢ $100 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 865 history records