Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe5e4…e43b
weather · 614 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$203 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$201 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses268 / 342
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)610 / 614
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 610 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$36
14 days−$71
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? No 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? No 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? No 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$4 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$39
weather 48% −$164
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? SELL No 8¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 9¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? BUY No 77¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? BUY No 36¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? BUY No 28¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? BUY No 66¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -59.4% -63.3% 14% 14% -61.8%
≤30d 135 -26.3% -33.3% 37% 29% -33.1%
≤90d 610 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 36% -14.6%
all 610 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 36% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 25% -22.8%
15% -33.0% 18% -30.3%
20% -39.6% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.81 · official $5.81 (match) · 2033 history records