Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe5e2…5b0b
other · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage290d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 82¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $78 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 22 $35 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 28% −$1
other 24% +$3
politics 21% +$1
crypto 10% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $12 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $31 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 35 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.20 · official $7.95 (match) · 131 history records