Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5dc…35f9 world 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,231 (+6%) realized +$10,163 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%111W / 184L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,113per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$4,072
politics 13% +$1,229
other 10% +$1,451
tech 2% +$457
sports 2% −$37
finance 1% +$75
culture 1% −$141
crypto 1% +$433
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -40.1% -45.8% 11% 8% -29.9%
≤30d 234 -27.6% -34.5% 27% 16% -18.2%
≤90d 295 -19.7% -27.4% 38% 20% -12.6%
all 295 -19.7% -27.4% 38% 20% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 20% -12.6%
10% -34.3% 11% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -40.7% 7% -28.6%
20% -46.5% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$106 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,133
Realized+$10,163
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses111 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)295 / 147
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? No 94¢ 94¢ $523 $521 −$2 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $244 $275 +$31 (+13%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $260 $268 +$8 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $239 $245 +$6 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 90¢ 93¢ $201 $207 +$5 (+3%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $184 $180 −$4 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $201 $146 −$55 (-27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 33¢ 90¢ $40 $110 +$70 (+174%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 64¢ 66¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 58¢ 61¢ $83 $88 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$58 -704%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$8 -48%
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" during Georgia rally on October 28? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$44 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$43 -167%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 14 at 5 P Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$37 -365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$112 -2320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $142 −$197 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Jun 15 $67 −$27 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$83 -131%
Will Trump say "Hunter" during NBC interview? Jun 15 $2 +$25 +1260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$6 -5122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$96 -15610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$56 -8535%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$117 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Kim" or "Korea" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Coinbase #1 finance app on Monday? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$152 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on Octob Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -353%
Will Trump say "Russia" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$114 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$85 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$107 -169%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jun 15 $0 +$92 +228592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $136 −$247 -181%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$169 -318%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 15 $73 −$93 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$10 -366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$28 -15721%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $43 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 60¢ $57 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $4 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 42¢ $53 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,132.72 · official $2,132.72 (match) · 3500 history records