Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5dc…a749 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-7%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$38
sports 25% +$187
crypto 5% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 37% 30% +5.6%
≤30d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 37% 30% +5.6%
≤90d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 37% 30% +5.6%
all 30 -11.5% -20.0% 37% 30% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 30% +5.6%
10% -27.6% 27% -4.5%
15% -34.6% 27% -13.7%
20% -41.0% 20% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$17 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $272 +$50 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $82 +$195 +237%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 +$6 +8%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 +$56 +206%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $7 +$16 +245%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 +$21 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$34 +345%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 −$7 -42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$7 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$11 -46%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$8 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 +$98 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$19 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 15m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $322 21m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $272 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $277 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $82 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $89 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $82 7h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $27 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 31h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 35h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 35h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $48 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $27 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $54 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.26 · official $11.26 (match) · 54 history records