Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5d9…0c00 crypto 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-18%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -74.0% -76.5% 20% 20% -86.5%
≤30d 16 -29.0% -35.8% 56% 38% -30.4%
≤90d 16 -29.0% -35.8% 56% 38% -30.4%
all 16 -29.0% -35.8% 56% 38% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 38% -30.4%
10% -41.9% 25% -37.1%
15% -47.5% 12% -43.2%
20% -52.7% 0% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$18 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $22 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records