Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe5d7…6530 weather 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,253 (-6%) realized −$2,338 · open +$85
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate83%258W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$425
7 days+$932
14 days+$667
30 days+$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$162
sports 27% −$2,617
other 21% +$8
crypto 1% −$91
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +22.3% +10.7% 71% 53% +2.5%
≤30d 289 +2.9% -6.9% 86% 25% -6.8%
≤90d 299 +2.7% -7.1% 85% 26% -13.6%
all 310 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 26% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 26% -17.3%
10% -17.6% 16% -25.2%
15% -25.6% 14% -32.4%
20% -32.9% 10% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$133 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$4,330
Realized−$2,338
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses258 / 52
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions33
Markets (closed)310 / 344
History coverage171d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $865 +$365 (+73%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $677 $613 −$64 (-9%)
Will there be 5+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $579 $589 +$10 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $348 $383 +$35 (+10%)
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Shane Collins 62¢ 62¢ $296 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 22¢ $120 $221 +$101 (+84%)
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 88¢ $189 $179 −$10 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $240 $177 −$63 (-26%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ $62 $128 +$66 (+107%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 10¢ $133 $103 −$31 (-23%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ $119 $87 −$31 (-26%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 45¢ $98 $81 −$17 (-18%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 69¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $65 $59 −$6 (-10%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $46 $56 +$10 (+21%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 30¢ $101 $54 −$47 (-46%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 63¢ $37 $51 +$14 (+37%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $29 $44 +$15 (+51%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 40¢ $57 $40 −$16 (-29%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $31 $39 +$8 (+27%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ $103 $34 −$68 (-66%)
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 65¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+76%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $18 −$3 (-12%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ $38 $17 −$21 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 17 $329 +$8 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $246 −$243 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $246 −$243 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $229 +$271 +119%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $179 +$121 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $259 +$241 +93%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 −$35 -29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $149 +$18 +12%
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Carmelo Anthony attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will Cam Skattebo attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $132 +$68 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 +$92 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $182 +$151 +83%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $73 +$27 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $87 +$13 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $35 +$65 +188%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $23 +$77 +344%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $204 +$116 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,070 −$573 -54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $209 +$91 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$9 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$12 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$18 +64%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $37 −$13 -36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$337 +165%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 09 $253 −$250 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $75 +$17 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $33 +$13 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $85 +$13 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $14 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $39 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $244 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $337 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 62¢ $300 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $246 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $246 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $14 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $229 20h
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 20h
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $70 25h
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $18 25h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $18 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $36 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $179 26h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $84 26h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $119 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $259 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 46h
Will Cam Skattebo attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Cam Skattebo attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 94¢ $15 2d
Will Carmelo Anthony attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Carmelo Anthony attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 66¢ $132 2d
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 94¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,329.65 · official $4,331.67 (match) · 756 history records