Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E5 0xe5d5…456b other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+16%) realized +$25 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$64
14 days+$46
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$30
sports 21% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.1% +81.0% 100% 100% +49.8%
≤30d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 45% 45% +14.1%
≤90d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 45% 45% +14.1%
all 11 -7.2% -16.1% 45% 45% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 45% +14.1%
10% -24.1% 45% +3.2%
15% -31.4% 45% -6.7%
20% -38.2% 36% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+46%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $67 +$28 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +149%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.02 · official $33.02 (match) · 30 history records