Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5d5…15fa politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$19
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage635d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $53 $0 +1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
US inauguration on January 20? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-22? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Suggs win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Germany confidence vote in 2024? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Todd Blanche be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Mark Andrews be the top Fantasy Tight End? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 43d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 43d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 47d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 47d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $54 70d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $54 71d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 72d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 73d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 78d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 79d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 80d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 81d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 88d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 88d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 96d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 96d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 99d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 99d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records