Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe5d3…79c5 sports 44 markets active 6d ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate81%35W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5
politics 0% $0
other 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.7% +49.0% 100% 100% +49.0%
≤30d 6 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 17% +7.2%
≤90d 6 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 17% +7.2%
all 43 +2.3% -7.5% 81% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses35 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage572d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? May 31 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m May 31 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 31 $6 $0 +4%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? May 31 $7 $0 +2%
Will Diogo Jota be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Dec 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will Drew Baglino be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Aug 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Victor Ponta? Jul 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 17 $2 $0 +3%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Jan 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 16 $11,680 −$12 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $10 17d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 173d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $6 173d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $6 232d
Will Diogo Jota be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 BUY No 100¢ $5 232d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 96¢ $5 269d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 269d
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? BUY No 98¢ $7 302d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $6 302d
Will Drew Baglino be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? SELL No 97¢ $5 302d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 335d
Will Drew Baglino be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? BUY No 100¢ $5 335d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Victor Ponta? BUY No 99¢ $7 369d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 96¢ $6 369d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 398d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 398d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 95¢ $7 418d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $6 418d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 459d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 459d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? BUY No 100¢ $1 485d
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $1 485d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1 522d
Brentford wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1 522d
Fulham wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1 522d
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $1 522d
Ethereum all time high by January 31? BUY No 97¢ $2 522d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $1 545d
Will Biden resign in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $1 545d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.19 · official $16.19 (match) · 92 history records