Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe5ce…286a sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$302 (-11%) realized −$300 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$239
other 15% −$52
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -26.8%
≤30d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -26.8%
≤90d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -26.8%
all 51 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 57% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 57% -19.1%
10% -16.7% 55% -26.8%
15% -24.8% 41% -33.9%
20% -32.2% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$52 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage169d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $90 +$16 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $55 +$37 +67%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 162.5 Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Anastasia Zakharova Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 160.5 Mar 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 158.5 Mar 20 $10 +$22 +216%
Miami Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Belinda Bencic Mar 20 $8 +$2 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $22 −$22 -100%
AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Miami Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Botic van de Zandschulp Mar 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Mar 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Miami Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francisco Comesana Mar 20 $15 +$7 +47%
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Miami Open: Darja Semenistaja vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Mar 19 $14 +$5 +37%
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $56 +$30 +54%
Miami Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Peyton Stearns Mar 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $60 +$98 +163%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $49 −$39 -80%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $47 +$17 +36%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $159 −$13 -8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $75 +$24 +32%
Eyüpspor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $45 +$20 +44%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 18 $60 +$85 +142%
Miami Open: Emiliana Arango vs Oksana Selekhmeteva Mar 18 $60 −$2 -3%
Murcia: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Roberto Carballes Baena Mar 18 $61 +$35 +58%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs aimclub (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Mar 18 $40 +$22 +55%
Zadar: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Arthur Gea Mar 18 $30 +$13 +43%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $35 −$34 -96%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Asuncion: Mariano Kestelboim vs Juan Pablo Varillas Mar 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $50 −$36 -72%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $72 +$24 +33%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $45 +$23 +50%
Miami Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Linda Fruhvirtova Mar 17 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenge Mar 17 $35 +$13 +37%
Counter-Strike: 8Sins vs EC BANGA (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Mar 17 $4 $0 +0%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Rival Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Gr Mar 17 $215 −$215 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Dane Sweeny vs Rinky Hijikata Mar 17 $166 +$59 +35%
Miami Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Marina Stakusic Mar 16 $100 +$69 +69%
Miami Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Diane Parry Mar 16 $105 +$3 +2%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 16 $51 +$76 +149%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs enjoy boys (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champion Mar 16 $49 +$15 +31%
Miami Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Christopher O'Connell Mar 16 $38 +$11 +30%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Trump say "Day Care" or "Daycare" this week? (January 11) Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 16 $17 +$9 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $106 20m
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 84¢ $90 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 9h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $101 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Ghana win on BUY 3¢ $5 29h
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 99d
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 47¢ $17 100d
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 100d
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 158.5 SELL Over 92¢ $32 100d
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 100d
Miami Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Belinda Bencic SELL Belinda Bencic 100¢ $10 100d
Miami Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 79¢ $8 100d
Miami Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ $12 100d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $15 100d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou BUY Yellow Submarine 67¢ $10 100d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 100d
Miami Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francisco Comesana BUY Alejandro Tabilo 68¢ $15 101d
AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 101d
Miami Open: Darja Semenistaja vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Elisabetta Cocciaretto 100¢ $19 101d
Miami Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Denis Shapovalov 64¢ $35 101d
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 101d
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 101d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $86 101d
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $107 101d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $56 101d
Miami Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Peyton Stearns SELL Peyton Stearns 71¢ $44 101d
Miami Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Peyton Stearns BUY Peyton Stearns 72¢ $45 101d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $158 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 112 history records