Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5cd…3d36 world 15 markets active 7d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,385 (-2%) realized −$1,385 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,968per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6,343
30 days−$5,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$3,410
politics 6% +$2,025
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -9.9% -18.5% 80% 0% -18.9%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 13% -11.2%
all 15 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 13% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 13% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 7% -19.7%
15% -26.9% 7% -27.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$421 vs −$3,429 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage114d
Avg bet$4,968
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $6,340 −$3,076 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $5,050 +$292 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,870 +$222 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,500 −$3,781 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $8,983 +$358 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $1,000 +$32 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3,000 +$102 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,946 +$344 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,000 +$288 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 28 $2,100 +$50 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $7,393 +$780 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $6,919 +$474 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5,000 +$406 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $4,414 +$2,025 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $336 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $361 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $753 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $674 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $900 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,000 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,000 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,092 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $719 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $239 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records