Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5cc…ed79 sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+4%) realized +$137 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%35W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$59
crypto 13% −$77
other 12% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -26.7% -33.7% 30% 29% -15.5%
≤30d 80 -26.7% -33.7% 30% 29% -15.5%
≤90d 94 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 34% -5.1%
all 94 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 34% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 34% -5.1%
10% -32.1% 32% -14.2%
15% -38.6% 30% -22.5%
20% -44.6% 28% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses35 / 59
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage84d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 4.5 Rounds Under 47¢ 64¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+35%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $41 +$63 +155%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $15 +$18 +118%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $26 +$29 +109%
Will Murtazali Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $15 −$2 -11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $5 +$13 +249%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $25 +$31 +123%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 20 $5 +$6 +115%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$22 +145%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $20 +$18 +89%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$10 +99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $24 +$25 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$3 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$13 +71%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$26 +143%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kyle Nelson win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $29 13m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 25m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 25¢ $15 33m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $15 43m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 36¢ $25 43m
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 43m
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 43m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $104 49m
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 21¢ $5 59m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 37¢ $20 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $33 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $15 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $55 1h
Will Murtazali Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 45¢ $15 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Andre Fili 28¢ $14 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $26 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $15 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 19¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 58¢ $18 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 16¢ $5 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $57 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $20 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $25 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 34¢ $5 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 47¢ $25 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.45 · official $39.45 (match) · 195 history records