Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5ca…6cda crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,556 (+15%) realized +$1,556 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%49W / 49L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$219
14 days+$1,010
30 days+$1,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,089
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 18% -19.6%
≤30d 70 -7.0% -15.9% 54% 37% +3.1%
≤90d 98 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 36% +0.1%
all 98 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 36% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% +0.1%
10% -31.7% 30% -9.4%
15% -38.3% 21% -18.2%
20% -44.3% 16% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$32 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses49 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage60d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $124 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $194 −$37 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $143 −$46 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $250 +$26 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $360 −$146 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$59 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $64 +$24 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$30 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $143 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $99 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records