Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E5 0xe5c8…84a6 sports 381 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,479 (+4%) realized +$6,488 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%187W / 191L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2,298est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,122
7 days+$1,546
14 days+$2,269
30 days−$1,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$7,051
politics 1% −$1,254
other 1% −$131
world 0% −$762
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +48.3% +34.2% 60% 60% +64.0%
≤30d 90 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 377 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 50% -5.9%
all 378 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 49% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -6.7%
10% -18.5% 49% -15.6%
15% -26.3% 48% -23.8%
20% -33.6% 44% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$549) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$383 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$6,488
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses187 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,298
Open positions3
Markets (closed)378 / 381
History coverage444d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 51¢ 48¢ $614 $588 −$26 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs shimmer 73¢ 69¢ $224 $212 −$12 (-5%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 47¢ 55¢ $171 $200 +$29 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $252 +$261 +103%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $635 +$1,862 +293%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $369 −$365 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $304 +$137 +45%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $355 −$348 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $590 +$472 +80%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $501 +$1,575 +315%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $872 −$862 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $27 +$38 +140%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $202 −$7 -4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $711 −$699 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $304 +$205 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $604 −$42 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $172 +$111 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $374 +$344 +92%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $405 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $213 −$210 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $119 +$96 +80%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $203 +$145 +72%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $215 +$355 +165%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $406 −$400 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,182 +$934 +79%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $432 −$425 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $188 −$185 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $507 −$507 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $871 +$651 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $244 +$245 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $567 +$390 +69%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $315 −$310 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $404 +$168 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 +$241 +119%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $852 +$559 +66%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $303 +$273 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Dplus vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 05 $831 +$476 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seas Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 04 $101 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $536 +$348 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 70¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 71¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 76¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 50¢ $100 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 50¢ $250 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 51¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 54¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 55¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 43¢ $3 7h
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Division One 47¢ $4 7h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 43¢ $4 7h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 43¢ $9 8h
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Division One 47¢ $83 8h
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Division One 47¢ $83 8h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 43¢ $43 8h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 50¢ $4 22h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 28¢ $10 22h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY YFT Esports 49¢ $20 23h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY YFT Esports 49¢ $102 23h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY YFT Esports 48¢ $83 23h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $18 24h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $5 24h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $78 24h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $48 24h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $3 24h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $1 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $5 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $0 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $72 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.17 · official $978.95 · 1944 history records