Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c2…cfb5 other 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 799d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,491 (-23%) realized −$10,715 · open +$224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%37W / 437L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$9,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$194
14 days−$243
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$2,999
other 35% −$6,331
sports 13% −$2,781
economics 5% −$1,420
crypto 4% −$549
world 3% −$1,390
tech 2% −$602
culture 0% −$229
weather 0% −$179
finance 0% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -73.4% -76.0% 7% 7% -24.5%
≤30d 23 -70.2% -73.0% 9% 9% -44.3%
≤90d 71 -75.1% -77.5% 7% 7% -57.8%
all 474 -56.0% -60.2% 8% 7% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.2% 7% -47.1%
10% -64.0% 7% -52.1%
15% -67.5% 6% -56.8%
20% -70.6% 6% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$46 · ×5.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

799d coverage
Net worth$9,333
Realized−$10,715
Unrealized+$224
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses37 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions29
Markets (closed)474 / 503
History coverage799d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $6,943 $6,840 −$103 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1,035 $1,548 +$513 (+50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $89 $126 +$37 (+42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $122 $125 +$3 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $146 $124 −$22 (-15%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $62 $53 −$8 (-13%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $151 $52 −$99 (-66%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $26 −$20 (-44%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $23 −$16 (-41%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+187%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $46 $12 −$35 (-75%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+37%)
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+46%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 329 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$33 +175%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Iceland (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $960 −$30 -3%
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $47 −$45 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $66 −$64 -96%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $50 −$49 -96%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $373 −$248 -66%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $98 −$95 -96%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? May 18 $5 +$6 +113%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 07 $16 +$27 +173%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 01 $74 −$71 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 20 $106 −$102 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $28 +$72 +264%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Santa Cruz: Hugo Dellien vs Maximo Zeitune Apr 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $109 −$109 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 06 $43 −$41 -96%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Apr 06 $298 −$183 -61%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $19 −$19 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Zambia end in a draw? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Zambia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $19 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,747 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $45 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,332.92 · official $9,333.50 (match) · 2015 history records