Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe5c2…94e1 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$63 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%59W / 78L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$10
14 days+$39
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$181
world 32% −$49
other 9% −$57
politics 1% −$27
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 82 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 137 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 39% -5.5%
all 137 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 39% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -5.5%
10% -27.5% 37% -14.5%
15% -34.5% 33% -22.8%
20% -40.9% 26% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses59 / 78
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions16
Markets (closed)137 / 153
History coverage84d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 53¢ 68¢ $180 $228 +$48 (+27%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 86¢ 89¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $95 $37 −$58 (-61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $43 $25 −$18 (-42%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 73¢ 26¢ $61 $22 −$39 (-64%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+220%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? No 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 48¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$9 +92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $74 −$50 -68%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$56 +365%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $19 −$12 -60%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 13 $16 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $41 +$40 +99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$29 +143%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$20 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou Jun 12 $6 −$2 -36%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $15 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $51 −$10 -19%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 08 $2 +$2 +119%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $15 +$10 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 +$13 +82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 94¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 87¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $5 23h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 3¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $21 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $101 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.52 · official $518.52 (match) · 403 history records