Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c2…2b81 other 850 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$897 (+5%) realized +$712 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%626W / 122L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$18
14 days+$25
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$301
weather 14% −$4
world 13% +$61
sports 11% −$40
politics 6% +$442
finance 6% +$140
crypto 6% −$29
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$10
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.7% +1.9% 100% 62% +1.6%
≤30d 100 -3.1% -12.4% 88% 21% -10.3%
≤90d 434 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 16% -8.7%
all 748 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 19% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 19% -6.0%
10% -19.0% 11% -15.0%
15% -26.8% 7% -23.2%
20% -34.0% 4% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$1,938
Realized+$712
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses626 / 122
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions102
Markets (closed)748 / 850
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 102 History 748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $221 $248 +$27 (+12%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $46 $55 +$9 (+20%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 69¢ 100¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+43%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+45%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+23%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 57¢ 99¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+74%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $22 $30 +$7 (+33%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 83¢ 78¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $23 $27 +$3 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 87¢ 55¢ $41 $26 −$15 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 89¢ 95¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+7%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $24 +$5 +23%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 10 $27 +$2 +8%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $15 +$2 +15%
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 08 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +74%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 05 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C or below on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $43 +$7 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$4 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 30? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $24 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 30? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $7 +$13 +202%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 30 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 30 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 in May? May 30 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 33m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 45¢ $9 7h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $9 21h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 63¢ $7 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $30 31h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 2d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $6 5d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 98¢ $20 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 83¢ $16 5d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 90¢ $18 5d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $9 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? BUY No 92¢ $5 6d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,937.85 · official $1,937.95 (match) · 2528 history records