Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5c1…bdb9 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,394 (-5%) realized −$6,542 · open +$3,148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$737per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$12,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,834
other 1% −$113
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 0% -1.3%
≤30d 7 +8.6% -1.7% 71% 29% -10.0%
≤90d 23 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 30% -13.8%
all 82 -24.0% -31.2% 35% 21% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 21% -24.9%
10% -37.8% 13% -32.1%
15% -43.8% 5% -38.6%
20% -49.3% 4% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$190 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$12,806
Realized−$6,542
Unrealized+$3,148
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage362d
Avg bet$737
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 65¢ $8,344 $11,383 +$3,040 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 79¢ $1,314 $1,422 +$108 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 28 $94 +$9 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $1,328 −$675 -51%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 04 $1,725 −$716 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $487 +$466 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $8,877 +$733 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $362 +$23 +6%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 01 $274 +$92 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 14 $217 −$50 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 13 $161 −$57 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 09 $806 −$528 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 08 $12 −$9 -75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 08 $461 −$113 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 06 $106 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $171 −$147 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $96 +$37 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 02 $11 +$7 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 02 $226 −$9 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 02 $94 +$33 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $933 +$179 +19%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30? Apr 01 $76 −$37 -49%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30? Mar 31 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Mar 31 $174 −$7 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5? Mar 30 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $24,000 (LOW) in December? Mar 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Mar 28 $499 −$499 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15? Mar 28 $146 −$119 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 17? Mar 28 $169 −$60 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 2? Mar 28 $672 +$161 +24%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 26 $404 −$191 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 26 $446 −$13 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jan 26 $338 +$78 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 24 $2,915 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? Jan 22 $220 −$103 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 22 $642 −$214 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? Jan 22 $300 −$142 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26? Jan 21 $1,433 +$20 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25? Jan 20 $1,396 −$714 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 18? Nov 17 $586 −$348 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 17 $945 −$289 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 21? Nov 16 $1,035 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 5? Nov 04 $646 −$575 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 4? Nov 04 $32 −$24 -75%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 5? Nov 03 $384 −$121 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 3? Nov 03 $206 +$11 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 03 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 3? Nov 03 $91 −$54 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 1? Nov 01 $686 +$707 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $86 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $70 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,406 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $106 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $104 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $894 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2,010 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,805.57 · official $12,805.57 (match) · 1058 history records