Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe5bd…f03e world 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$483 (+1%) realized +$496 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%178W / 179L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$62
14 days+$57
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$655
crypto 16% +$61
politics 13% +$120
sports 9% −$448
other 4% +$373
finance 1% +$41
economics 0% +$16
tech 0% +$40
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 17% -10.3%
≤30d 108 -4.6% -13.7% 58% 25% -9.5%
≤90d 357 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 25% -10.1%
all 357 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 25% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 18% -18.7%
15% -29.8% 12% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses178 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions4
Markets (closed)357 / 362
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$205
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $129 $136 +$7 (+5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $24 $6 −$17 (-73%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $235 −$55 -23%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $190 −$64 -34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $112 +$5 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $75 +$21 +28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $50 −$6 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $145 +$133 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $365 +$32 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $281 −$26 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $65 +$66 +101%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 13 $119 −$26 -22%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 13 $37 −$33 -89%
FDA approves Vepdegestrant? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $44 +$4 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 +$11 +33%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $323 −$123 -38%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $0 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $186 −$20 -11%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $4,755 +$29 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $13 +$4 +30%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $188 +$4 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $116 −$4 -4%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $175 +$5 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $262 +$10 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $376 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $221 +$2 +1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $126 +$42 +34%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $293 +$1 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,828 +$35 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 01 $49 −$10 -21%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 01 $147 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $80 30m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $72 34m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 16¢ $89 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 30¢ $0 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 30¢ $2 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 30¢ $2 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 30¢ $160 50m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 14¢ $37 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 14¢ $0 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 10¢ $0 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 10¢ $14 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 10¢ $12 59m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $13 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $68 10h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $48 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $31 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $27 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $109 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $96 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $197 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.97 · official $152.97 (match) · 3500 history records