Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5bc…3c8b crypto 107 markets active 5d ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%95W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% +$18
other 4% +$4
sports 3% +$7
crypto 2% +$2
economics 2% +$1
tech 2% +$3
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 100 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 1% -9.1%
10% -16.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×14.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×455.28 per $1 lost it wins $455.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses95 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)100 / 107
History coverage606d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 20 $6 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 13 $6 $0 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 13 $8 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $38 +$6 +17%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $6 $0 +5%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 05 $7 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $7 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 05 $13 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Dec 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 09 $7 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 06 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 24d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5 24d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 35d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 35d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 35d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $10 58d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $8 58d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 58d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $6 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 58d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 58d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 58d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 58d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 58d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 58d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 93d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $7 93d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $6 93d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 103d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 103d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $7 103d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $5 103d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 124d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.58 · official $59.59 (match) · 320 history records