Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ba…2b5f crypto 442 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%227W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$40
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$25
sports 11% −$67
other 2% −$66
politics 1% −$16
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% -45.1%
≤30d 25 -10.3% -18.8% 32% 32% -33.1%
≤90d 93 -17.6% -25.4% 32% 30% -34.6%
all 442 -11.5% -20.0% 51% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 41% -11.6%
10% -27.6% 34% -20.1%
15% -34.6% 26% -27.8%
20% -41.0% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses227 / 215
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)442 / 442
History coverage228d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 442 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$25 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 29 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $16 +$16 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $13 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 29 $13 +$36 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 23 $12 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $3 +$11 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 08 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 08 $6 +$10 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8AM ET May 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $11 −$10 -95%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 01 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 30 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -94%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $13 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3AM ET Apr 27 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 27 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 27 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2AM ET Apr 27 $15 −$12 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11PM ET Apr 26 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 26 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4AM ET Apr 22 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1116 history records