Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5b8…bb8d other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$11 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$26
14 days+$262
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% +$4
other 29% −$30
world 18% −$16
sports 8% +$217
politics 2% −$9
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 50% +20.3%
≤30d 16 +67.9% +51.9% 31% 19% +44.4%
≤90d 35 +12.0% +1.4% 31% 20% +1.4%
all 36 +11.7% +1.1% 33% 19% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 19% +1.2%
10% -8.6% 14% -8.5%
15% -17.4% 14% -17.3%
20% -25.5% 11% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$6 · ×5.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)36 / 50
History coverage145d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $17 −$52 (-75%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+80%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 9¢ 4¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 −$19 -70%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 +$45 +71%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $6 +$256 +4139%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$3 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $169 +$29 +17%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? May 19 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 18 $19 +$8 +45%
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e May 14 $11 −$3 -30%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? May 12 $16 +$28 +181%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Sta May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 09 $17 −$16 -95%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? May 07 $10 $0 +3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $16 +$10 +64%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 06 $19 +$1 +8%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 08 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 9¢ $11 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 43h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.78 · official $74.78 (match) · 133 history records