Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe5b7…5ee3
sports · 48 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$773,032 -107%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$775,442 · open +$2,472
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$183,433
Realized−$775,442
Unrealized+$2,472
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$10,014
Open positions15
Markets (closed)90 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15,005
Trades / day787.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 15 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,223,427
7 days−$775,442
14 days−$775,442
30 days−$775,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $61,583 $64,859 +$3,275 (+5%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 90¢ 97¢ $45,025 $48,278 +$3,254 (+7%)
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 100¢ 100¢ $15,686 $15,694 +$8 (+0%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 98¢ 70¢ $19,660 $14,000 −$5,660 (-29%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $9,238 $11,732 +$2,494 (+27%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 35¢ 36¢ $11,103 $11,261 +$159 (+1%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $16,656 $9,921 −$6,735 (-40%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $3,185 $3,420 +$235 (+7%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,200 $1,350 +$150 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,070 $1,090 +$20 (+2%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,299 $850 −$450 (-35%)
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 99¢ 100¢ $823 $828 +$5 (+1%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $59 $114 +$54 (+92%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 30¢ $2 $35 +$33 (+1665%)
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes $31 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 32¢ $259 $0 −$259 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) Knicks $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Spurs 48¢ $1,633 $0 −$1,633 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Spurs $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 51¢ $10,200 $0 −$10,200 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Knicks 17¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 23¢ $46,000 $0 −$46,000 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Spurs $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Knicks 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 12 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 12 $46,000 −$46,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Jun 12 $4,932 −$4,932 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $3,827 −$3,827 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Jun 12 $4,433 −$4,433 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 12 $36,400 −$36,400 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 12 $183 −$183 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 12 $9,985 −$9,985 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 12 $650 −$650 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $47,781 −$47,781 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 12 $24,954 −$24,954 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5 Jun 12 $8,387 −$8,387 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $41,000 −$41,000 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 12 $760 −$760 -100%
Kings vs. Bulls Jun 12 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 12 $82,497 −$82,497 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $23,500 −$23,500 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $3,082 −$3,082 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 12 $48,900 −$48,900 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 12 $35,505 −$35,505 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 12 $141,675 −$141,675 -100%
Pacers vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $2,560 −$2,560 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 12 $52,000 −$52,000 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 12 $3,939 −$3,939 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 12 $34,400 −$34,400 -100%
Kings vs. Thunder Jun 12 $8,400 −$8,400 -100%
Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 Jun 12 $5,809 −$5,809 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 12 $7,383 −$7,383 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 12 $2,546 −$2,546 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $1,913 −$1,913 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 12 $2,181 −$2,181 -100%
Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 12 $16,800 −$16,800 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 12 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Hornets vs. Heat Jun 12 $9,330 −$9,330 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 12 $20,500 −$20,500 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 12 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 12 $33,688 −$33,688 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$27,212
other 10% +$5,695
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $9 3m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 4m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $3 4m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $27 20m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 20m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $3 23m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 24m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $95 29m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $20 33m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 35m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $11 36m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $24 49m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 49m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $27 50m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 51m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $9 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $13 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $71 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $249 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -69.5% -72.4% 4% 4% -84.2%
≤30d 90 -69.5% -72.4% 4% 4% -84.2%
≤90d 90 -69.5% -72.4% 4% 4% -84.2%
all 90 -69.5% -72.4% 4% 4% -84.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover787.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.4% 4% -84.2%
10% -75.0% 4% -85.7%
15% ← realistic here -77.5% 4% -87.1%
20% -79.7% 4% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183,433.18 · official $183,433.86 (match) · 3500 history records