Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E5 0xe5b3…49f8 sports 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,088 (+1%) realized +$1,358 · open −$270
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%151W / 246L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2,425est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 247d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,107
other 3% −$1,909
crypto 3% +$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% +29.6%
≤30d 98 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 37% -1.9%
≤90d 208 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 39% -4.5%
all 397 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 37% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 37% -10.5%
10% -17.9% 35% -19.1%
15% -25.8% 34% -26.9%
20% -33.1% 32% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$573) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$599 vs −$377 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$2,814
Realized+$1,358
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses151 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2,425
Open positions2
Markets (closed)397 / 399
History coverage247d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,615 $1,567 −$48 (-3%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 51¢ 44¢ $1,470 $1,247 −$223 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,821 +$1,698 +93%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $195 −$190 -97%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,013 +$1,023 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $487 −$477 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $744 −$730 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $466 +$277 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $805 −$795 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $508 +$524 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $488 +$534 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $508 +$491 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $423 −$415 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,212 +$3,220 +146%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $912 +$1,334 +146%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $498 −$490 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $2,102 −$508 -24%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $400 +$1,048 +262%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $2,019 −$1,986 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $737 −$722 -98%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 09 $507 −$502 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,019 +$2,560 +251%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $612 −$601 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $508 −$499 -98%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 08 $997 +$702 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,158 +$1,297 +112%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $592 −$580 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $702 −$87 -12%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $646 +$57 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,080 −$1,055 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $472 +$440 +93%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 06 $553 −$541 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1,621 −$1,595 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $1,679 −$58 -4%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $509 −$340 -67%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $714 +$356 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $811 −$790 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $490 +$921 +188%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $709 +$839 +118%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $583 −$570 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $509 +$773 +152%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $512 −$505 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $511 +$1,018 +199%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $902 +$1,662 +184%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $90 −$88 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 03 $398 +$912 +229%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 51¢ $497 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $487 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 50¢ $508 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $509 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 33h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 33h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,816 33h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo $195 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 34h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $2,036 35h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 48¢ $2 36h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 49¢ $1,011 36h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $118 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $487 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $741 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $743 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $466 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $805 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,032 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $508 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $488 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 33¢ $423 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $8 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $2,204 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,814.43 · official $2,757.08 · 1303 history records