Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe5b1…7451 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$714 (+13%) realized +$1,738 · open −$1,024
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$440
7 days+$537
14 days+$544
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$911
crypto 34% +$440
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 40% +2.9%
≤30d 6 +17.6% +6.4% 67% 50% +3.0%
≤90d 6 +17.6% +6.4% 67% 50% +3.0%
all 6 +17.6% +6.4% 67% 50% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 50% +3.0%
10% -3.8% 50% -6.8%
15% -13.1% 50% -15.8%
20% -21.6% 50% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$52 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.23 per $1 lost it wins $6.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized+$1,738
Unrealized−$1,024
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage16d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 18¢ $1,414 $369 −$1,044 (-74%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $93 $123 +$30 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $894 +$519 +58%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $990 −$79 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,992 +$112 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$10 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$6 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,428 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,413 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $894 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $912 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $118 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $81 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $137 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.36 · official $597.98 · 87 history records