Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ae…84d8 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,422 (-35%) realized −$4,221 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$251
14 days−$2,039
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$5,350
sports 34% +$300
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 53% -18.9%
≤30d 69 +8.5% -1.8% 58% 57% -12.9%
≤90d 74 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 54% -46.7%
all 74 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 54% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 54% -46.7%
10% -14.0% 49% -51.8%
15% -22.3% 38% -56.4%
20% -29.9% 35% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$242 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$4,221
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage79d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 46¢ 100¢ $55 $120 +$65 (+118%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $102 $46 −$56 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $52 $23 −$30 (-57%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 20¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $151 −$90 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $163 +$37 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $186 −$74 -40%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $87 +$29 +33%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $165 +$36 +22%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $51 +$32 +63%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $20 +$20 +98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $40 +$40 +100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $20 +$20 +100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $21 −$15 -70%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $40 +$60 +147%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$60 +150%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$69 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $300 −$240 -80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $140 −$138 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $149 −$147 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $206 +$144 +70%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $143 +$41 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $161 +$139 +87%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 +$53 +77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $44 +$36 +82%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $68 +$47 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$29 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $49 +$32 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $60 +$40 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $34 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$26 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $33 +$28 +85%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $57 −$11 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$4 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $132 +$190 +144%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $116 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 10¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 20¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 20¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 20¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 20¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 20¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 11¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 20¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $150 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $15 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $16 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 40¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.90 · official $233.90 (match) · 465 history records