Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe5a9…2c34 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,117 (-1%) realized −$3,267 · open +$150
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%149W / 91L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$955per market
Trades / day71.3pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$166
14 days+$414
30 days+$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$385
crypto 14% −$213
sports 5% +$562
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.4% -2.8% 27% 15% -9.8%
≤30d 141 -3.2% -12.4% 61% 24% -9.3%
≤90d 240 -8.3% -17.1% 62% 29% -9.6%
all 240 -8.3% -17.1% 62% 29% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 29% -9.6%
10% -25.0% 13% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.3% 8% -26.1%
20% -38.9% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$52 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3,550
Realized−$3,267
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses149 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 229
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$955
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 34¢ 36¢ $3,400 $3,550 +$150 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40,930 +$141 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20,000 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19,900 +$200 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19,900 +$300 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10,000 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22,400 +$100 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $269 +$231 +86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $475 −$475 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 +$25 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $64 −$32 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30,033 +$7 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,260 +$1,441 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,573 −$1,573 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $320 +$180 +56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,059 +$11 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,007 +$193 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $468 +$131 +28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$12 -60%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $73 +$27 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$5 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$8 -60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$10 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $460 +$15 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $6,533 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $3,467 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,328 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $94 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,140 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 34¢ $3,400 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $6,113 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $28 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $100 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $65 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $4 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,257 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,550.00 · official $3,550.00 (match) · 3500 history records