Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5a8…daab sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,113 (-14%) realized −$1,110 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%132W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$38
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,073
other 13% −$50
world 1% −$9
crypto 0% −$30
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +33.0% +20.3% 52% 45% +6.4%
≤30d 112 +8.8% -1.5% 46% 43% -2.4%
≤90d 305 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 40% -22.6%
all 305 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 40% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -22.6%
10% -15.9% 39% -30.1%
15% -24.0% 35% -36.8%
20% -31.5% 30% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1,110
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses132 / 173
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions8
Markets (closed)305 / 317
History coverage73d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 22¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-59%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -64%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$18 +344%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$11 +207%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 +$18 +348%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$8 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 12 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $5 +$14 +270%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$20 +133%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $14 +$12 +88%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $13 −$5 -36%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $23 −$13 -56%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 +$12 +117%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$20 +480%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$6 +120%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 +$24 +156%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 +$5 +88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$2 -40%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$7 +135%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 12m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 15m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $6 58m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 59m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $5 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $5 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $10 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A SELL 82¢ $16 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $5 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $23 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 27h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 26¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 16¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.78 · official $26.78 (match) · 593 history records