Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe5a4…be02 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
politics 30% +$3
other 14% +$16
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 46% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 46% 0% -9.3%
all 46 +2.3% -7.4% 37% 4% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -7.9%
10% -16.3% 4% -16.7%
15% -24.4% 2% -24.7%
20% -31.8% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.58 per $1 lost it wins $7.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage329d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $80 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $63 +$15 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $53 +$4 +8%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Oct 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 31 $12 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $6 $0 +5%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $5 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $31 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $9 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $9 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $37 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $25 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $21 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $12 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.85 · official $33.20 (match) · 143 history records