Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe59a…aaaf other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,163 (+38%) realized +$3,163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip
Net edge+88%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$1,918
sports 19% +$1,992
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+95.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +33.5% +20.8% 80% 80% +20.4%
≤30d 5 +33.5% +20.8% 80% 80% +20.4%
≤90d 6 +32.4% +19.8% 83% 83% +19.6%
all 7 +115.9% +95.3% 86% 86% +42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +95.3% 86% +42.0%
10% +76.6% 71% +28.4%
15% +59.6% 57% +16.0%
20% +43.9% 57% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +116% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$699 vs −$281 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.91 per $1 lost it wins $14.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage178d
Avg bet$921
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,048 +$248 +12%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,338 +$826 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $575 +$478 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $609 −$281 -46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $998 +$270 +27%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $291 +$1,795 +617%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,586 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,295 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,039 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,164 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 77¢ $1,053 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $329 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $327 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $575 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $609 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 65¢ $1,304 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,268 39d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $998 75d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 100¢ $2,086 178d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Demoor 14¢ $291 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records