Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe598…a0a8
other · 423 markets active 11d ago
0.0score
−$1,716,052 -131%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,726,685 · open +$10,012
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$56,323
Realized−$1,726,685
Unrealized+$10,012
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses364 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)555 / 423
Avg bet$3,094
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 13 History 555 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,738,512
7 days−$1,738,512
14 days−$1,738,512
30 days−$1,738,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $28,966 $35,013 +$6,046 (+21%)
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 75¢ 97¢ $5,508 $7,118 +$1,610 (+29%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 73¢ 88¢ $5,248 $6,329 +$1,082 (+21%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 79¢ 98¢ $3,540 $4,436 +$896 (+25%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,031 $1,129 +$98 (+9%)
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? No 96¢ 99¢ $719 $745 +$26 (+4%)
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 78¢ 98¢ $490 $618 +$129 (+26%)
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 80¢ 99¢ $304 $376 +$72 (+24%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $256 $246 −$10 (-4%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 71¢ 76¢ $210 $225 +$16 (+7%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? No 8¢ 82¢ $5 $51 +$46 (+956%)
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? No 96¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the US strike another country first? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will between 80-84 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by March 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will the US strike another country first? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4,136 $0 −$4,136 (-100%)
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025? No 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on December 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9,188 $0 −$9,188 (-100%)
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? No 1¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Trump and JD Vance not shake hands during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the US strike Colombia next? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1,509 $0 −$1,509 (-100%)
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? No 5¢ 0¢ $402 $0 −$402 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will between 80-84 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $51 −$61 -119%
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026? Jun 12 $134 −$171 -128%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $4,136 −$4,195 -101%
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on December 17? Jun 12 $9,188 −$9,188 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 12 $19 −$26 -133%
Will the US strike Colombia next? Jun 12 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on January Jun 12 $166,420 −$169,741 -102%
North Korea missile launch by December 31? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8? Jun 12 $2,261 −$2,248 -99%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will between 50-54 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million Jun 12 $15,768 −$15,768 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21? Jun 12 $42 −$131 -308%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Jun 12 $701 −$701 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during Strickland vs. Hernandez? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$178 -387%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US strike Nigeria next? Jun 12 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on January Jun 12 $28,291 −$28,291 -100%
Will less than 50 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will between 65-69 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will between 75-79 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $16 −$59 -369%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Jun 12 $4,197 −$4,197 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise less than $2.0 millio Jun 12 $104,990 −$110,366 -105%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.2B and $4.6B at mark Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will between 85-89 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on December 1 Jun 12 $9,188 −$9,188 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $3.8B and $4.2B at mark Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in F Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Jun 12 $2 +$1,252 +50401%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.5 million Jun 12 $15,768 −$15,768 -100%
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $341 −$341 -100%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Jun 12 $223 −$223 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.0 million Jun 12 $15,768 −$15,768 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $1,896 −$1,841 -97%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Jun 12 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will the US strike Colombia next? Jun 12 $4,082 −$4,196 -103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Jun 12 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% +$27,059
other 28% −$12,157
politics 10% +$11,222
economics 5% −$4,953
tech 5% +$3,292
crypto 3% −$320
weather 3% +$445
sports 1% −$2,776
culture 0% +$13
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $3,712 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $3,104 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 14d
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3,409 35d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 44d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 44d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $151 49d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 50d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 50d
Will Trump post "Spain" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 55d
Will Trump post "Spain" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 55d
Will Trump post "Spain" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 55d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $525 56d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $333 56d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $151 56d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 56d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 56d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $95 57d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $333 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $86 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $184 57d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $141 57d
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? BUY No 99¢ $52 58d
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 60d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $119 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -74.0% -76.5% 3% 3% -100.0%
≤30d 139 -70.9% -73.7% 5% 4% -100.0%
≤90d 254 -29.6% -36.3% 42% 7% -86.2%
all 555 +3.8% -6.1% 66% 9% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 9% -61.1%
10% -15.1% 7% -64.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.3% 6% -68.2%
20% -30.8% 5% -71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,322.68 · official $56,315.37 (match) · 3500 history records