Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe598…4677 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 914d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$349 (+2%) realized +$349 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%55W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$23
14 days+$26
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$108
crypto 31% +$110
sports 17% +$295
world 6% +$8
politics 3% −$73
economics 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 83% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 14 +15.6% +4.6% 86% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 15 +16.0% +5.0% 87% 53% -14.2%
all 83 -1.9% -11.2% 66% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 25% -7.3%
10% -19.7% 18% -16.2%
15% -27.5% 11% -24.3%
20% -34.6% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

914d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses55 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage914d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $488 +$2 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $148 +$12 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +46%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $492 +$6 +1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $28 +$17 +59%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $0 +$1 +140%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Jun 02 $146 −$131 -90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $32 +$7 +22%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 24 $217 +$68 +31%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $99 +$2 +2%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $75 +$2 +2%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 19 $89 +$2 +2%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 11 $257 +$6 +2%
Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Feb 21 $217 +$15 +7%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Feb 12 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Feb 11 $14 +$18 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 03 $40 −$37 -93%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $607 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $109 +$48 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $2 $0 +15%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Jan 28 $5 −$5 -93%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15? Jan 23 $1,127 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 28? Jan 23 $564 $0 +0%
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 19 $564 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 07 $559 +$5 +1%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Nov 06 $777 +$64 +8%
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 04 $524 +$28 +5%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 02 $524 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $482 $0 +0%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 13 $1,850 +$18 +1%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 15 $487 +$15 +3%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers May 14 $184 +$267 +145%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $170 +$3 +2%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 13 $175 +$20 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors May 11 $161 +$3 +2%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 11 $169 −$6 -4%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 09 $164 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Apr 20 $5 −$3 -63%
Farcaster airdrop in Q2 2025? Apr 05 $61 −$10 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? Apr 05 $178 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $490 2h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $24 6h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $0 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $0 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $0 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 26h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $9 39h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 39h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $6 39h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $7 40h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $425 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.12 · official $8.12 (match) · 721 history records