Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe597…4e73 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+17%) realized +$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$56
other 9% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +30.6% +18.1% 64% 64% +46.8%
≤30d 14 +30.6% +18.1% 64% 64% +46.8%
≤90d 14 +30.6% +18.1% 64% 64% +46.8%
all 14 +30.6% +18.1% 64% 64% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 64% +46.8%
10% +6.8% 64% +32.7%
15% -3.5% 64% +19.9%
20% -12.9% 57% +8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 64¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 +$11 +82%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +213%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $42 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $6 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $14 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 2¢ $0 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 20h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $3 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $13 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $9 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.87 · official $59.87 (match) · 32 history records