Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe593…9077 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-24%) realized −$23 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$13
crypto 37% −$3
other 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.7% -21.9% 27% 18% -26.6%
≤30d 11 -13.7% -21.9% 27% 18% -26.6%
≤90d 11 -13.7% -21.9% 27% 18% -26.6%
all 11 -13.7% -21.9% 27% 18% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 18% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 9% -33.6%
15% -36.2% 9% -40.0%
20% -42.5% 9% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+96%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +398%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.16 · official $39.16 (match) · 40 history records