Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe593…8692 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$11 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%62W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$261
other 12% +$144
finance 6% −$170
sports 2% −$173
crypto 1% −$58
tech 1% +$9
culture 0% −$20
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤90d 42 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% -30.8%
all 99 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 57% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 57% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 38% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 21% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$51 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses62 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage177d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No 16¢ 38¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+144%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$15 +150%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 19 $26 +$8 +32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 24? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 25? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? May 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 10 $173 −$173 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 10 $56 +$20 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 +$15 +154%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $165 −$118 -71%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $116 +$31 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $96 −$37 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $54 +$55 +102%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 14 $172 −$80 -46%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 14 $31 +$24 +79%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026? Apr 08 $81 +$30 +37%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 07 $105 +$35 +34%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 202 Apr 05 $79 +$42 +54%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $44 +$11 +25%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $126 −$126 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 202 Apr 03 $173 +$85 +49%
ChatGPT Outage by April 3? Apr 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? Apr 02 $33 +$18 +54%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $109 −$109 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? Apr 01 $43 +$12 +28%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $90 +$30 +33%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $126 +$69 +55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Apr 01 $29 +$6 +21%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Apr 01 $41 +$22 +53%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 30 $17 −$7 -43%
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $200 −$132 -66%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 26 $73 +$121 +167%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 26 $40 +$27 +68%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 202 Mar 25 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 25 $102 −$87 -85%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026? Mar 25 $16 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 64d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 64d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 64d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 24? BUY Yes $3 64d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 64d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 65d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 65d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 BUY Yes 46¢ $10 68d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 55¢ $10 68d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $47 71d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $11 71d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $32 71d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $26 71d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $30 71d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $65 71d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $57 71d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $3 71d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $108 71d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $54 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $7 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $7 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $81 72d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL No 26¢ $93 72d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 74d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? BUY No 74¢ $56 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 66¢ $38 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.67 · official $81.67 (match) · 353 history records