Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe592…a20f crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$47
sports 17% −$30
other 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.3% -35.1% 29% 29% -31.7%
≤30d 7 -28.3% -35.1% 29% 29% -31.7%
≤90d 33 -12.1% -20.4% 58% 52% -12.8%
all 35 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 51% -11.0%
10% -25.0% 43% -19.5%
15% -32.2% 31% -27.3%
20% -38.9% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$76 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage183d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $190 $186 −$3 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 55¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $61 +$75 +123%
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $49 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $51 +$40 +79%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $49 −$48 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $49 −$49 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $59 −$58 -98%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET Apr 10 $300 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET Apr 10 $185 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 10 $70 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$68 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$106 +53%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 10 $200 −$196 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 10 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 10 $50 −$47 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$52 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$101 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$121 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 10 $150 −$87 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 10 $117 −$89 -76%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 10 $50 +$17 +34%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$47 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$22 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$32 +32%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$63 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11AM ET Apr 10 $213 −$172 -81%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11AM ET Apr 10 $100 +$66 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 10 $50 +$22 +44%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 10 $50 +$22 +44%
AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $69 +$67 +98%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $63 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $34 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $49 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 66¢ $49 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $91 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $91 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $49 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $49 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $51 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $49 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $59 28h
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $325 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $191 80d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $100 80d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $200 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $185 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $83 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $70 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $268 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $306 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $200 80d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $200 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $200 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $50 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $50 80d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $152 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.40 · official $265.15 · 80 history records