Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E5 0xe58c…4e96 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$87 (+30%) realized +$129 · open −$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day40.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+30.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+44.5%	+30.7%	70%	70%	+43.7%
≤30d	20	+44.5%	+30.7%	70%	70%	+43.7%
≤90d	20	+44.5%	+30.7%	70%	70%	+43.7%
all	20	+44.5%	+30.7%	70%	70%	+43.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover40.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+30.7%	70%	+43.7%
10% ← realistic here	+18.2%	65%	+29.9%
15%	+6.8%	60%	+17.4%
20%	-3.7%	45%	+5.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +74% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized+$129

Unrealized−$43

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day40.0

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	6¢	4¢	$25	$17	−$8 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	37¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	18¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	31¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$19	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$6	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$63	+239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$18	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$14	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 17	$9	−$9	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$20	+374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$12	+225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 16	$16	−$15	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$27	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$45	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$31	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$89	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$44	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$40	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$26	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$10	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.36 · official $67.35 · 41 history records