Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe589…0666 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$574 (-20%) realized −$573 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$324
world 28% −$59
crypto 20% −$463
sports 19% +$81
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-59.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.3% -36.9% 21% 21% -4.2%
≤30d 17 -30.0% -36.7% 24% 24% -5.6%
≤90d 114 -55.0% -59.3% 14% 12% -35.9%
all 114 -55.0% -59.3% 14% 12% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.3% 12% -35.9%
10% -63.2% 10% -42.1%
15% -66.7% 10% -47.6%
20% -70.0% 8% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$573
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 98
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)114 / 118
History coverage72d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$72 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $63 +$42 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$115 +561%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 27 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 13 $27 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $87 −$59 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 30 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 30 $2 +$4 +186%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $7 −$5 -68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $5 −$1 -13%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $5 +$8 +153%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $25 −$18 -72%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 −$5 -29%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 23 $20 −$6 -29%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $16 $0 +3%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $17 +$28 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $110 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 11h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $28 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $63 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 3d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.91 · official $86.91 (match) · 231 history records