Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe588…ad2b
world · 134 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$133 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$248
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses58 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)125 / 134
History coverage65d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 9 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$60
14 days−$58
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 76¢ $148 $137 −$12 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 94¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 87¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 46¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 52¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Up 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$6 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $69 −$8 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $116 −$18 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -12%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $14 −$8 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $172 −$11 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $162 +$5 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $78 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $30 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$7 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $35 −$15 -44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $397 +$5 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $108 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $107 +$12 +11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $129 −$11 -9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1 $0 -25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$3 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $74 +$10 +14%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$65
crypto 16% −$16
politics 14% −$6
other 12% +$4
sports 4% −$2
finance 1% +$3
weather 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 66¢ $20 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $5 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $29 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $58 59m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $29 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 88¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 65¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $57 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $19 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $4 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 98¢ $5 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 96¢ $5 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $4 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 19¢ $3 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 20¢ $3 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $6 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $8 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 26h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 8% -11.3%
≤30d 116 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 12% -11.4%
≤90d 125 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 15% -11.3%
all 125 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 15% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 15% -11.3%
10% -29.0% 6% -19.8%
15% -35.9% 2% -27.6%
20% -42.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.91 · official $247.91 (match) · 639 history records