Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe588…7397 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 519d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$232 (-6%) realized −$237 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$155
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$550
world 28% +$46
other 25% −$314
tech 5% −$173
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.9% -35.7% 50% 0% -36.9%
≤30d 4 -64.5% -67.8% 25% 0% -65.4%
≤90d 4 -64.5% -67.8% 25% 0% -65.4%
all 37 +45.9% +32.0% 35% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 30% -7.1%
10% +19.4% 24% -16.0%
15% +7.8% 24% -24.1%
20% -2.7% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$41 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage519d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 97¢ $87 $97 +$10 (+11%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 92¢ $69 $92 +$24 (+34%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 23 $66 +$2 +2%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $72 −$43 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 10 $45 −$21 -46%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $179 −$64 -36%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe Feb 09 $55 −$53 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 10 $59 +$16 +26%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $100 +$152 +152%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 23 $90 −$31 -34%
Iranian coup attempt before July? Jun 23 $55 −$24 -44%
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? Jun 23 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $105 −$9 -9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $83 −$20 -24%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $477 +$202 +42%
FDA approves Gilead’s lenacapavir for treating HIV? Jun 20 $135 +$24 +18%
Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German electio Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ralph Fiennes win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 13 $120 +$126 +105%
Trump releases Epstein list today? Feb 27 $44 +$26 +59%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%? Feb 24 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Feb 24 $16 −$14 -86%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Feb 23 $317 +$25 +8%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Feb 23 $274 +$177 +65%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 23 $35 +$64 +182%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Jan 27 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jan 20 $130 −$64 -49%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Jan 20 $24 +$88 +364%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Jan 20 $42 +$170 +401%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 68¢ $67 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $28 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 65¢ $66 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 9d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $87 9d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 69¢ $14 9d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 69¢ $56 9d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $72 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $45 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $121 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $100 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $5 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $392 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $11 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $254 14d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $115 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 108d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $179 108d
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe SELL Yes 1¢ $2 133d
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe BUY Yes 8¢ $1 133d
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe BUY Yes 26¢ $54 134d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 163d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 163d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 163d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 163d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 163d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.87 · official $189.87 (match) · 115 history records