Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe587…dc56 weather 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$89 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%107W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$18
14 days+$48
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$10
other 4% −$11
crypto 2% −$44
sports 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +47.1% +33.1% 35% 25% -5.1%
≤30d 193 -8.1% -16.9% 35% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 275 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 27% -10.4%
all 275 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 27% -10.4%
10% -28.9% 22% -18.9%
15% -35.8% 18% -26.8%
20% -42.1% 15% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses107 / 168
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)275 / 281
History coverage53d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? Jun 22 $200 +$9 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +698%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +1095%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +301%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $183 −$24 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $467 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $239 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $209 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $138 57m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $91 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $137 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $6 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 6d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.05 · official $30.06 (match) · 704 history records