Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E5 0xe584…a7fc other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$360 (+17%) realized +$338 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$289
14 days+$289
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$132
sports 28% +$454
world 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 32% +5.6%
≤30d 28 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 32% +5.6%
≤90d 28 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 32% +5.6%
all 28 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 32% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 32% +5.6%
10% -38.1% 32% -4.5%
15% -44.1% 32% -13.8%
20% -49.6% 25% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$42 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 35
History coverage17d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+67%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $122 +$133 +108%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$64 +126%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$73 +48%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$51 +51%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $202 +$82 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $203 +$315 +156%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$22 -43%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$108 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 31m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 32m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 77¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $0 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 26¢ $20 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $26 14h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $225 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $152 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 35h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $26 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $284 2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.08 · official $219.49 · 56 history records