Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe583…2d98 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 187d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,583 (+20%) realized +$4,661 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +89% what you keep after slip
Net edge+89%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%112W / 127L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 187d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,301
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+105.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +81.3% +64.1% 31% 31% +20.1%
≤30d 40 +244.2% +211.4% 40% 40% +11.5%
≤90d 124 +187.6% +160.2% 44% 39% -26.1%
all 239 +126.8% +105.2% 47% 41% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +105.2% 41% -14.6%
10% +85.6% 37% -22.7%
15% +67.6% 31% -30.2%
20% +51.2% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +64% → late +189% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$101 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$4,661
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses112 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)239 / 235
History coverage187d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$28 -808%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$30 -846%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$29 -827%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$20 -562%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $52 +$681 +1313%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $45 +$21 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $85 −$75 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $87 −$44 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$63 -184%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $24 −$52 -217%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$9 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $69 +$70 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$15 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $72 +$21 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $653 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $24 +$618 +2595%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $592 −$588 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$767 +2450%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$105 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $976 −$972 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$9 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$877 +3700%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $6 +$13 +224%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$766 +3669%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$6 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $74 −$53 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $5 +$5 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $38 +$632 +1653%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $112 −$36 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $36 −$24 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $23 −$18 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $18 −$11 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $13 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $439 −$439 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $449 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $7 +$18 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3 +$9 +305%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 47m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 47m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 48m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 50m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $114 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $82 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $106 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $67 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $86 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $47 17h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.53 · official $95.53 (match) · 3500 history records