Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe582…7fd5 sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,885 (-17%) realized −$2,889 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 117L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$25
14 days+$454
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,939
other 1% +$6
crypto 1% −$50
world 0% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.8% -20.2% 31% 31% +6.0%
≤30d 121 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 39% +0.4%
≤90d 192 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 41% +1.9%
all 205 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 40% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -25.7%
10% -17.6% 39% -32.8%
15% -25.5% 37% -39.3%
20% -32.8% 34% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$62 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2,889
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions4
Markets (closed)205 / 210
History coverage242d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 23¢ 36¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+54%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 +$2 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $60 +$40 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +291%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$8 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $8 +$3 +41%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$3 +203%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 +$4 +567%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$3 +122%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$3 +104%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +126%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 $0 -55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $0 $0 -57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $0 +$2 +561%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $2,267 +$1,775 +78%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $1,469 −$1,205 -82%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $25 −$1 -3%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $25 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 23¢ $7 56m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $2 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $1 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 45h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $1 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 50¢ $100 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $58 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $2 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $2 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $7 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 14¢ $1 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $2 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $13.91 (match) · 541 history records