Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe579…8489 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$140 (+17%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$156
other 26% −$68
politics 25% −$19
crypto 7% −$53
sports 7% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -29.1% -35.9% 20% 20% -30.3%
≤30d 5 -29.1% -35.9% 20% 20% -30.3%
≤90d 5 -29.1% -35.9% 20% 20% -30.3%
all 18 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 33% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 33% +0.4%
10% -29.7% 28% -9.2%
15% -36.5% 22% -17.9%
20% -42.7% 17% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$14 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage350d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$28 -72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$28 -69%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$75 +177%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? Aug 16 $69 +$66 +96%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31? Aug 11 $18 −$10 -54%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 08 $179 −$12 -7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 08 $100 +$35 +34%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 28 $70 +$30 +43%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 14 $42 +$29 +69%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jul 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 05 $56 +$4 +6%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks? Jul 04 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of Jul 04 $8 −$6 -81%
Iranian hackers release Trump emails by next Friday? Jul 03 $5 $0 -2%
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before August? Jul 03 $5 −$2 -46%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3? Jul 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $27 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $42 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31? SELL No $8 311d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31? BUY No $3 313d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31? BUY No $15 313d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $54 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $54 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $60 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? SELL No 61¢ $60 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY No 67¢ $66 314d
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? BUY No 51¢ $69 314d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? SELL No 98¢ $135 314d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 73¢ $100 325d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? SELL No 97¢ $100 325d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 68¢ $70 339d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? SELL No 98¢ $70 339d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $12 347d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $27 348d
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks? SELL Yes $1 349d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.04 · official $46.04 (match) · 57 history records