Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe577…8e9f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$24
crypto 7% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 33% -33.0%
≤30d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -12.2%
≤90d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -12.2%
all 8 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -12.2%
10% -21.3% 38% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 38% -28.2%
20% -35.9% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage25d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $36 −$34 -93%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $26 +$34 +133%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $38 +$6 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.69 · official $36.42 (match) · 40 history records