Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe577…6c42 other 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 480d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 480d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,845 (+1%) realized +$4,911 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%340W / 97L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 480d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 22% +$3,731
other 17% +$2,661
world 16% −$398
politics 15% −$626
crypto 12% −$6,530
sports 10% +$2,761
tech 7% −$434
finance 0% +$136
culture 0% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.8% -13.9% 70% 26% -12.6%
≤30d 74 +0.6% -9.0% 77% 31% -9.4%
≤90d 199 +0.8% -8.8% 78% 38% -9.2%
all 437 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 30% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 30% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 16% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 10% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$640) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$260 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$4,908
Realized+$4,911
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses340 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions12
Markets (closed)437 / 449
History coverage480d ⚠
Avg bet$908
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1,327 $1,293 −$35 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $993 $1,006 +$14 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $651 $656 +$5 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $567 $608 +$41 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $340 $378 +$38 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $253 $263 +$10 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $190 $199 +$9 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $197 +$33 (+20%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $190 $195 +$5 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 86¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 67¢ 3¢ $134 $6 −$129 (-96%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $44 $1 −$43 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $618 −$183 -30%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $178 +$13 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $383 −$332 -87%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 $0 -1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $802 +$198 +25%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $190 +$10 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $118 +$12 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $284 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $13 +$6 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $231 +$23 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $154 +$9 +6%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $675 +$23 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $255 +$27 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,078 +$24 +2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $36 −$3 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 −$25 -93%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $92 −$88 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $17 +$6 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $124 +$6 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $89 +$3 +3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $745 +$66 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$24 +44%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $150 +$264 +176%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $109 +$6 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $356 +$13 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $507 −$3 -0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $109 +$1 +1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $34 +$6 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $11 +$1 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $355 +$4 +1%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $81 +$69 +85%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $397 +$98 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,554 +$23 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 73¢ $53 6m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 73¢ $14 32m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 73¢ $25 32m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 73¢ $119 38m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 10¢ $52 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 35¢ $34 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 73¢ $73 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 39¢ $7 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 39¢ $13 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $63 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 41¢ $83 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $215 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $4 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $253 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 73¢ $1 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 73¢ $14 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 73¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,908.19 · official $4,908.56 (match) · 3500 history records